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人大校长:中国应创立金融失衡指数取代CPI

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年10月17日 12:23:06
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(  中)(新)(网)(5月)(25日)(电)(中)(国)(人)(民)(大)(学)(校)(长)(、央)(行)(货)(币)(委)(员)(会)(委)(员)(、著)(名)(金)(融)(学)(家)(陈)(雨)(露)(25日)(在)(人)(大)(重)(阳)(金)(融)(研)(究)(院)(发)(布)(了)(《走)(向)(核)(心)(国)(家)(中)(国)(的)(“大)(金)(融)(”战)(略)(与)(发)(展)(路)(径)(》大)(型)(研)(究)(报)(告)(,报)(告)(首)(次)(将)(金)(融)(提)(升)(至)(国)(家)(战)(略)(层)(面)(的)(高)(度)(,提)(出)(构)(建)(中)(国)(的)(“大)(金)(融)(”宏)(观)(调)(控)(体)(系)(。报)(告)(还)(提)(出)(了)(几)(个)(“重)(磅)(型)(”理)(论)(和)(发)(展)(路)(径)(,如)(中)(国)(金)(融)(业)(应)(走)(向)(混)(业)(经)(营)(、成)(立)(金)(融)(控)(股)(公)(司)(;人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(通)(过)(“三)(步)(走)(”最)(终)(于)(2040年)(成)(为)(最)(重)(要)(的)(“国)(际)(储)(备)(货)(币)(”等)(。  陈)(雨)(露)(还)(在)(“大)(金)(融)(”报)(告)(中)(创)(立)(了)(一)(个)(引)(人)(瞩)(目)(的)(新)(型)(发)(展)(指)(数)(“金)(融)(失)(衡)(指)(数)(”,报)(告)(认)(为)(:“该)(指)(数)(不)(仅)(可)(以)(有)(效)(描)(述)(中)(国)(经)(济)(周)(期)(中)(的)(金)(融)(失)(衡)(现)(象)(,而)(且)(比)(传)(统)(的)(CPI、FCI、PMI等)(指)(数)(更)(为)(准)(确)(,也)(更)(为)(领)(先)(。”  报)(告)(中)(认)(为)(,在)(金)(融)(体)(系)(的)(风)(险)(监)(测)(方)(面)(,早)(期)(的)(方)(法)(主)(要)(是)(“金)(融)(危)(机)(指)(数)(和)(早)(期)(预)(警)(系)(统)(”。这)(些)(方)(法)(虽)(然)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(能)(够)(反)(映)(金)(融)(体)(系)(的)(脆)(弱)(性)(程)(度)(,但)(大)(部)(分)(指)(标)(缺)(乏)(“前)(瞻)(性)(”,而)(且)(“决)(策)(者)(常)(常)(会)(在)(纷)(繁)(复)(杂)(和)(彼)(此)(冲)(突)(的)(指)(标)(面)(前)(变)(得)(犹)(豫)(迟)(疑)(”。而)(创)(建)(“金)(融)(失)(衡)(指)(数)(”就)(是)(希)(望)(能)(够)(找)(到)(一)(个)(能)(有)(效)(反)(映)(金)(融)(失)(衡)(程)(度)(的)(代)(表)(性)(指)(标)(,将)(其)(作)(为)(危)(机)(预)(警)(、检)(测)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(和)(进)(行)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(管)(理)(的)(重)(要)(参)(考)(变)(量)(。  报)(告)(中)(也)(明)(确)(提)(出)(了)(“金)(融)(失)(衡)(指)(数)(”所)(叠)(加)(的)(多)(重)(基)(本)(指)(标)(,包)(括)(社)(会)(融)(资)(总)(量)(、投)(资)(、企)(业)(杠)(杆)(、利)(差)(水)(平)(、房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(和)(股)(票)(价)(格)(。报)(告)(认)(为)(,这)(些)(指)(标)(从)(不)(同)(的)(侧)(面)(描)(述)(了)(金)(融)(体)(系)(的)(“融)(资)(泡)(沫)(”、实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(“投)(资)(泡)(沫)(”以)(及)(与)(此)(相)(伴)(随)(的)(“资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(”的)(发)(展)(程)(度)(和)(演)(化)(路)(径)(。  报)(告)(中)(说)(:“可)(以)(肯)(定)(的)(是)(,"金)(融)(失)(衡)(指)(数)("与)(各)(主)(要)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(变)(量)(具)(有)(较)(强)(的)(系)(统)(相)(关)(性)(,且)(与)(现)(行)(的)("企)(业)(景)(气)(指)(数)("、"制)(造)(业)(采)(购)(经)(理)(指)(数)("相)(比)(,他)(对)(经)(济)(周)(期)(的)(反)(映)(更)(为)(敏)(感)(也)(更)(为)(领)(先)(。”(中)(新)(网)(金)(融)(频)(道)()
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